What Factors Correlate With Higher Hate Crime Rates?

Mon Jan 05 2026

Racist hate crime in Northern Ireland is not a widespread, random phenomenon. Our initial data analysis reveals a stark pattern: these attacks are highly concentrated in specific pockets. Additional analysis would indicate that attacks are often deliberately targeted and carried out by a small number of perpetrators. This localised reality demands a focused, urgent response from police, prosecutors, and policymakers.

The geography of racist crime

The data paints a clear picture: racist hate crime clusters intensely in a small number of locations.

In Belfast, hotspots include the wards of Blackstaff, Central, Duncairn, Woodstock, and Beersbridge. Outside Belfast, City Walls in Derry and Castle Demesne in Ballymena stand out with particularly high rates per 1,000 people.

Delving deeper into the geography confirms the concentration.

Belfast is the epicentre, accounting for 45% of all recorded race hate incidents (8,847 since 2007), with a rate of 26 per 1,000 people.

At the District Electoral Area (DEA) level, just 16 out of 80 DEAs (20%) account for over half (52%) of all race hate crime. Key hotspots are Botanic and Titanic DEAs in Belfast, and Ballymena DEA — a pattern stable since 2005, unrelated to the recent riots.

The most extreme concentration is at ward level. A mere 10% of all wards (42) are responsible for 51% of recorded hate crime. Twenty-two of these are in Belfast. This indicates racist attacks are not random but highly localised and likely organised by a small network of individuals.

When hate crime is recorded as an 'incident'

Not every reported hate event is recorded as a crime. As official guidance states, some lack the required severity. However, our analysis reveals a worrying pattern: in specific areas, there is a significant tendency to downgrade racist episodes to 'incidents only.'

As the User Guide to Police Recorded Crime Statistics in Northern Ireland (2024) explains,: “not all hate motivated incidents will result in the recording of a crime, as what has occurred in the incident may not be of the level of severity that would result in a crime being recorded.”

This could reflect a prevalence of lower-level harassment. But it could also signal an inconsistent or inadequate policing response. The consequence is the same: when hate is logged as an 'incident,' perpetrators face zero legal sanction, and victims risk being deterred from seeking police help in future. The PSNI is aware of the “high level of underreporting” in this area; its 2026 Service Instruction on Hate Crime says “building confidence in how we approach and deal with Victims of Hate motivated incidents is therefore critical”. The guidance requires police to “effectively investigate all reported crime and Non-Crime Hate Incidents in line with investigative standards”.

In a further step, in February 2026 the PSNI announced it would stop sharing data on migrant victims of crime with UK immigration enforcement in all but “very specific and exceptional circumstances”, after admitting that its previous approach “could be perceived as constituting institutional racism” according to The Detail.

Where is the 'incident-only' pattern most pronounced?

Across Belfast, 2,881 of 8,847 hate episodes were recorded as incidents only. The Botanic DEA has a notably high volume of 'incident-only' recordings. Titanic, Coleraine, The Moor, and Ballymena DEAs show the same tendency.

At ward level, 16 specific wards demonstrate this pattern acutely. Examples include:

Roeside Ward (Limavady DEA): 69% incident-only
Mountsandel Ward (Coleraine DEA): 53% incident-only
Harbour (Bangor Central DEA): 49% incident-only
Central Ward (Botanic DEA): 40% incident-only
Falls (Court DEA): 40% incident-only
Hilden (Lisburn North DEA): 41% incident-only

This geographical clustering of downgraded reports demands scrutiny.

Factors linked to higher hate crime rates

Our analysis identifies statistical correlations, not causes. There is nothing inherent in deprivation or community background that causes racism. These factors likely act as proxies for complex social dynamics.

Wards with higher rates of racist hate crime tend to have a higher percentage of minority ethnic residents and higher levels of deprivation and economic inequality.

Chloë Trew

Chloë Trew is the director of PPR. She has a particular interest and expertise in participatory approaches to human rights practice. She has previously worked at the Scottish Human Rights Commission as well as the Scottish Commission for Learning Disabilities.